RCP scenarios are an acronym for Representative Concentration Pathways. They are scenarios that predict the impact of future human activities on the atmosphere in terms of greenhouse gas concentrations and forecast the resulting climate change. Based on RCP scenarios, which are used as tools to predict future climate by scientifically calculating greenhouse gas concentrations that vary depending on whether climate change response policies are implemented, it is possible to forecast changes in average temperature and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change.
The origins of RCP scenarios date back to 2007. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) embarked on developing new scenarios to enhance the accuracy of climate change predictions. At a climate change expert meeting in September 2007 attended by approximately 130 relevant researchers and users, the new greenhouse gas concentration scenarios known as RCPs were finalized, and a scenario development framework and schedule were established by the climate modeling (CM), integrated assessment modeling (IAM), and impact, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) communities. Subsequently, RCP scenarios were officially adopted in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013.
[RCP Scenario Ⓟ ESG.ONL/ESG Today]
The RCP scenarios consist of four types. RCP 2.6 represents a case in which the Earth can recover on its own from the impact of human activities, predicting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 420 ppm by the end of the 21st century. However, given the current state of national greenhouse gas emissions that has already surpassed this level, it is evaluated as a scenario that is difficult to realize. RCP 4.5 represents a case in which greenhouse gas reduction policies are implemented to a significant degree, forecasting carbon dioxide concentrations of 540 ppm and a temperature increase of approximately 2.4°C. RCP 6.0 represents a case in which greenhouse gas reduction policies are implemented to some degree, predicting carbon dioxide concentrations of 670 ppm and a temperature increase of approximately 2.8°C. RCP 8.5 is the worst-case scenario in which emissions continue along the current trend without greenhouse gas reductions, predicting carbon dioxide concentrations of 940 ppm and a temperature increase of approximately 4.4°C.
The Korea Meteorological Administration develops and provides national climate change standard scenarios based on the IPCC’s RCP scenarios. Global climate models and regional climate models are utilized to produce detailed climate change projections specialized for the Korean Peninsula, and according to the climate change scenarios, in the latter half of the 21st century (2071–2100), South Korea’s temperature is projected to increase by 1.7–4.4°C, with precipitation increasing by 6.6–13.2% compared to the present.
The four RCP scenarios also provide projections on sea level rise. According to the scenarios, the sea level in the waters surrounding South Korea is projected to rise by 87–136 cm by the end of the 21st century, a figure exceeding the global average. Just as the vulnerability of coastal areas makes it possible to anticipate socioeconomic impacts, the scenarios can also be used as the scientific basis for public policies such as industry-specific impact assessments, the formulation of climate change adaptation measures by local governments, water resource management plans, and disaster preparedness infrastructure construction.
The RCP scenarios are not mere future predictions but tools that show the outcomes of our choices. Individual practices toward greenhouse gas reduction, corporate eco-friendly management, and government climate policies all come together to determine which path — between RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 — we will follow. Climate change response is no longer a matter of choice but of survival, and the RCP scenarios are indicators that scientifically demonstrate that urgency.
by Editor O