The emissions gap refers to the difference between the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that must be reduced to curb global warming and the actual projected reductions. Even if countries set greenhouse gas reduction targets, an emissions gap arises when those targets are insufficient to prevent the climate crisis.
The emissions gap can be identified through the annual Emissions Gap Report published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).Published since 2010, the report analyzes countries’ climate policies and reduction targets to assess how much further greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to achieve the climate goals agreed upon by the international community.
The benchmark for calculating the emissions gap is the climate goal of the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015. The Paris Agreement aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5℃. UNEP compares the greenhouse gas emissions pathways capable of achieving this goal with projected emissions based on countries’ reduction targets and current policies. For example, if emissions must be reduced from 100 to 50 to achieve the climate goal but the actual projection is 80, the emissions gap is 30.
According to UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, published in October 2026, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45% from 2025 levels by 2035 to enter a pathway that brings the increase in the global average temperature back below 1.5℃ by 2100. However, even if all countries fully implement their submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs),the projected reduction rate would be only 11–15%. This represents a gap of 30–34 percentage points between the required reduction rate and the rate promised by countries.
UNEP projects that even if countries fully implement their reduction targets and continue similar levels of effort afterward, the increase in the global average temperature this century will reach approximately 2.6℃. If only currently implemented policies are maintained, the increase could reach approximately 2.8℃. Because greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere over long periods, the later emissions are reduced, the more sharply they will need to be cut afterward.
Reducing the emissions gap requires expanding renewable energy, reducing fossil fuel use, and improving energy efficiency. The emissions gap is an indicator not only of whether countries achieve their announced reduction targets, but also of whether those targets are sufficient to curb the actual rise in global temperatures. It shows that countries keeping their promises and the international community achieving its climate goals are two different issues.
by Editor O